The war in Ukraine will continue in 2023. The first months of the new year may show whether the Russian occupiers are capable of maintaining the occupied territories, and the Ukrainian military is capable of conducting a counteroffensive and liberating the lands. The Wall Street Journal has identified six important factors that will influence the course of the war in Ukraine in the first months of 2023. This is the weather, the Bakhmut fortress, the offensive of the Ukrainian troops, the Russian defense, the Russian offensive, events outside of Ukraine.
“Weather – Mud season is still going on in Ukraine. The temperature has dropped below freezing, but the frost doesn’t last long enough for the ground to harden. Even tracked vehicles are difficult to move, except on hard-surfaced roads. On much of the front line separating Russian and Ukrainian forces, the pace of the conflict has slowed. On firm ground, if and when this happens, the intensity of the conflict will increase. This, most likely, will be in favor of Ukraine, as a side that has proven its ability to a quick military maneuver. Although it will also make it more difficult for the advancing forces to consolidate and defend newly gained positions. Ukrainian troops, thanks to modern cold-weather equipment provided by Canada and other countries, appear to be better prepared for winter than the Russians. Ukrainian supply lines are shorter, and Ukrainian troops have rotations on and off the front lines, allowing them to rest and recuperate. They also appear to be more motivated than the Russian troops. But if cold weather helps Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines, it will make the fight for ordinary Ukrainians harder as Russian bombardments of energy and heating infrastructure continue, plunging communities across Ukraine into darkness.”
Russia’s attempt to capture the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region has acquired not only strategic importance, but also psychological, the publication says. Defeat would allow Ukrainian troops to retreat to higher, more secure positions, but would earn Moscow a propaganda victory.
“The city remains one of the few areas where Russian troops are trying to advance, but their continuous shelling of Ukrainian positions in recent months has brought only minimal success and was accompanied by very heavy losses. Bakhmut is politically important to three key players in Moscow. For President Vladimir Putin, capturing the city would allow him to claim that Russia is realizing its claim to Donbas territory. For Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose Wagner mercenaries do much of the fighting, this would help confirm his claim that he is in charge of the country’s best fighting force. The success will also help Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the new Russian military commander in Ukraine, justify his withdrawal last month from the southern city of Kherson after he said the troops were needed to fight elsewhere.
Ukrainian offensives – Most military analysts believe that Ukraine retains a significant amount of strategic initiative in the war after recapturing large Russian-held territories in the fall. They believe that Ukraine will want to continue offensive operations in the winter and, if possible, push the Russian forces even further. According to military analysts, there are two obvious directions for the offensive of the Ukrainian army. The first is a line between the eastern towns of Svatovo and Kremennaya in the Lugansk region, which are connected by the important R-66 highway. The second is south of the cities of Melitopol and Berdyansk in the Zaporozhye region. Achieving this goal will cut off key lines and communications between Russia and Crimea.”
For Russia, one of the benefits of losing territory is that Russia now has to defend a much shorter front. According to Ukrainian estimates, the front has been reduced from about 700 miles to 550. And the likely directions of Ukraine’s offensive are obvious to the Russians as well.
“Moscow troops have dug trenches to protect a large part of the front and beyond, with the trenches extending to the Crimea and even to the beaches there, to prevent possible Ukrainian landings. The formation is built in depth as regular Russian troops bring in reservists. Ukraine will see where the Russians have dug in, and the loss of leaves on the trees has made it harder to hide positions. According to military analysts, the current goal of Russia, with the exception of Bakhmut and a few other areas, is not to lose. Ukrainian officials recently said that Russia is preparing for a further massive offensive in Ukraine, planning to combine half of the 300,000 reservists who have not been sent to the front with available units for an offensive early next year. According to them, this may include a further offensive from the territory of Belarus in the direction of Kyiv. Western analysts are skeptical that the reservists will be able to do what more combat-ready troops could not do earlier this year..
According to military analysts, the Ukrainian warnings may be intended to dispel complacency about the incompetence of the Russian military, which they have shown so far, and to continue pressure on Ukraine’s Western partners to continue to provide weapons and ammunition to Kyiv.
“If Mr. Putin is hoping that Western support will falter, it hasn’t happened yet. The visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Washington demonstrates that American support for Ukraine remains strong. Support from European governments also appears to be stagnant, even as economies are weakened by high energy prices. The latest U.S. support package includes the first Patriot air defense battery, which will help protect the Ukrainian power grid and other infrastructure hit by drone, ballistic and cruise missile attacks. The battery will require the training of Ukrainian military personnel, which means that it can be put into operation no earlier than spring.”
Read on Censor.NET: US to send Patriot missiles in next aid package to Ukraine - CNN
Source: Fakty
