Danish intelligence warns that a misunderstanding within the Russian army could escalate the war. In a new report Danish Defense Intelligence Service FE defines red lines for Russian President Vladimir Putin on the use of tactical nuclear weapons, according to Expressen.
“The war is not going the way Putin planned, and lately Ukraine has been pushing back Russian troops, not the other way around. If Ukraine continues to retake large swaths of annexed territory, such as Crimea or Donbass, then Russia may see this as a move against the country’s “core interests” or even its very existence., notes FE. - If that happens, there is a risk that Russia will conclude that only the use of nuclear weapons can prevent an unacceptable Russian defeat.“
FE also argues that Russia is likely to feel a similar threat to the country if it feels that NATO is getting too involved in the war. Where that border is for Russia no one knows, but intelligence raises the risk that someone lower in the Russian hierarchy may misunderstand and overreact to any military activity by a NATO nation. Such a misunderstanding can lead toescalation of the crisis“.
Tom Reset, Associate Professor of Intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Universityhowever, he believes that the threshold for the use of Putin’s nuclear weapons is higher.
“Personally, I think that in Russia the threshold for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine is somewhat higher. Among other things, I think that Crimea is of particular importance for Russia, and not the identification of the annexed territories in Ukraine.”he said in an interview with Dagbladet.
Recall the analysis of Danish intelligence on Putin’s nuclear threats to Sweden and Finland.
Source: Fakty
