Inflation is falling, but the target is still far away. This is recognized in the NBP itself.

The average annual inflation for 2023 will be 11.9%, in 2023 - 5.2%. for 2024 - NBP forecasts in the so-called. central path. The forecast assumes that in 2024-2025 the government’s protective activities in the field of energy will be gradually phased out. As for gas prices, they will completely expire due to the fall in gas prices. Forecasts for July also assume that interest rates will remain unchanged.

Target inflation rate no earlier than 2025

All this means that reaching the inflation target of 2.5-3 percent will take a long time. will take place no earlier than 2025.

- Inflation, depending on the situation in the world, will drop to 9-10 percent. And that’s what’s stuck with us. This is, of course, a certain scenario. I’m afraid that with the passive policy of the NBP, inflation will fall due to reasons beyond our control, and there is a great risk that it will not fall after that. Let me remind you that a year ago, at a press conference, the president of the NBP said that inflation would begin to decline from next month. Now he says we will see lower inflation in 1.5 years. Inflation is a strange animal. It grows as a result of some kind of impulse, for example, due to high fuel prices. Then this impulse disappears, but an inflationary spiral appears. Everyone knows that prices will rise, so they demand higher wages, and this increases labor costs. Inflation can persist for years, - said prof. Witold Orlowski from the Vistula Academy of Finance and Business.

The forecast released today contradicts the words of NBP President Adam Glapinski, who said at a press conference on Friday that “inflation is falling head over heels.”

We don’t feel inflation falling

According to a survey conducted for the Commonwealth, as much as 76.9 percent. Poles do not feel the slowdown in inflation . “First of all, it should be clarified that at present we are dealing with a decrease in the dynamics of price growth, and this is not the same as their decrease,” one of the authors of the study said when asked about the reasons for the discrepancy. between GUS ads and consumer experience.

- The problem is that most of the society, having heard such a message [o niższej inflacji – red.], expects to reduce prices in stores. However, going shopping, compatriots still face high prices. And here the problem begins, because first of all it should be clarified that we are now dealing with a slowdown in price growth, and this is not the same as their decline. Therefore, many consumers may think that inflation is not decreasing because food in stores is not getting cheaper. - said Dr. Krzysztof Luchak, one of the co-authors of the study.

According to Luchak, the decline in inflation is not felt by the Polish middle class, which lives beyond its means. People in this group often have high loans, which have become especially burdensome in times of runaway inflation.

June inflation. Fourth consecutive decline

The Central Statistical Office (GUS) has published a preliminary estimate of CPI inflation for June. It amounted to 11.5 percent. The market consensus was 11.7 percent. - In June 2023, prices for consumer goods and services, according to operational estimates, increased by 11.5% compared to June 2022. (price index 111.5), and compared to May 2023, remained at the same level (price index 100.0) - we read in the release of the CSO.