The CSO is to publish inflation data for February today. Economists generally expect the record to be broken, though estimates vary. The good news is that things are only going to get better in the coming months.
Today, the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) will publish inflation data for February. Economists agree that we are facing a peak in prices, although forecasts for specific numbers vary. This is evidenced by a survey conducted by Parkiet and Rzeczpospolita. The difference between the extreme estimates is more than 2 percentage points. - Pessimists believe that inflation will increase to 19.2 percent, while optimists believe that it will be close to the January level (17.2 percent). On average, according to experts, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 18.7 percent. Every year.
February inflation. Why different ratings?
Rzeczpospolita points out that the significant variation in inflation estimates in February reflects analysts’ uncertainty about the consequences of the annual revision of the consumer price index. The Central Statistical Office updates this basket every year to match the structure of the consumer price index. average household spending in the previous year gives the rate of inflation in January (updating the composition of the CPI most often causes a downward revision of the January inflation figures, by a maximum of 0.3 percentage points, but usually by 0.1 percentage points, last however, an exception was made to the rule, and the January result increased by 0.2 percentage points).
The main reason for the acceleration of inflation in February compared to January was the low base base a year ago, associated with the introduction of the so-called. anti-inflationary shield, partially extinguished this year. That is why economists have long pointed to February as the month of peak inflation. However, a downward trend is expected from March, and by the end of the year, inflation may reach single digits.
Single-digit inflation this year?
– We assume that inflation in February will be 18.7 percent. This will be the peak, and the next months should bring a sharp drop in inflation. We believe inflation will fall below 10% in September. and at the end of the year will be 7-8 percent. Urszula Krynska, economist at PKO BP, predicts in an interview with Money.pl.
Piotr Kalisz, chief economist at Citi Handlowy, expects single-digit inflation at the turn of the third and fourth quarters. – This will be more the impact of last year’s high underlying base, rather than strong disinflationary pressures – - says Rzeczpospolita expert.
Single-digit inflation this year is expected by National Bank of Poland (NBP) President Adam Glapinski, he said at a press conference last Thursday. An inflation report released a day later indicates that the central bank’s forecast suggests inflation of 11.9% this year, 5.7% next year and 3.5% in 2025. Every year.
Source: Wprost
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