The meeting of the Monetary Policy Council will begin on Tuesday. The market does not expect any changes from it: interest rates will remain at the current level, and there will be no reduction until autumn.
Economists agree that the two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Council, which begins on Tuesday, will not lead to a decision to raise or lower interest rates. The main rate of the National Bank of Poland has remained at 6.75 percent since September. Although the end of the increase cycle that began in the fall of 2021 has not been announced, the state of suspension has been ongoing for several months. Maybe borrowers will finally see an interest rate cut, resulting in lower monthly loan payments?
Interest rate cut? Maybe closer to autumn
It’s not that fast. Marta Petka-Zagaevska, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis Group, PKO Bank Polski. She believes the MPC will decide on a first 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) cut in the fall, “and at the end of this year, the base rate could already be 50 basis points lower than it is at present,” she said in a Interview with Inter.
Alexandra Beska from Bank Pekao SA’s Macroeconomics Department expressed confidence in an interview with the same website that the Board would leave interest rates unchanged. - The communiqué following the meeting should not differ significantly from the January one and will probably indicate the expectations of a gradual return of inflation to the target value and the absence of the need for further jumps. Changes in the MPC’s rhetoric could be made in time for the March meeting, where the results of the latest NBP inflation forecast are known - then the Board can declare the end of the increase cycle.
A slow decline in inflation will help lower rates (although high values are possible in February and March, even exceeding 20%, price growth should slow down from April).
interest rates. Bank analysts do not suggest that anything can change
mBank economists wrote that “it is difficult to expect any changes - interest rates should remain at the current level.” “A little unrest in the circle of the Council can only be sown by the March forecast. The data is dovish,” they noted in a comment on Monday.
Analysts at ING Bank Śląski expect the Board to leave interest rates unchanged pending the results of the March macroeconomic forecast. “In our opinion, there will be no conditions for lowering interest rates in 2023 due to continued high core inflation, although stabilization or even a decrease in world energy prices (including fuel prices) will help reduce the main inflation index over the coming months,” — they posted on social media.
We should know the MPC decision on Wednesday. The press conference of the President of the National Bank of Poland and at the same time the Chairman of the MPC, Adam Glapinski, is scheduled for Thursday, February 9th. The start of the conference is scheduled for 15.00.
Source: Wprost
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