The key think tank for the automotive industry in Poland, the Samara Institute for Automotive Market Research, will turn to your community of professionals and practitioners for 2023 forecasts. Will it be good or bad?
Like every year, IBRM Samar asked its Linkedin community what the forecasts for the new passenger car market are for 2023. 243 people cast their votes. The vast majority of them are people associated with the automotive industry (over 95%), both people involved in direct sales, as well as those involved in financing, insurance, sales managers or people responsible for brand development on the Polish market.
Will it be better or worse?
The question was: assuming that 424.5 thousand new passenger cars will be registered this year, will there be a market record next year:
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decline above 5 percent (sales less than 403,275)
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reduce to 5 percent (403,275 – 424,500)
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increase to 5 percent (424,500 – 445,725)
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increase above 5 percent (sales over 445,725)
Moderate pessimism
According to IBRM Samar, 74 percent of people indicated that the market would fall, with 30 percent saying “up to 5 percent” and the remaining 44 percent. predicts a decline of more than 5%. Optimists 20%. of those surveyed noted “an increase of up to 5 percent” and the remaining 6 percent. expects the market to rise more than 5 percent.
Managerial level people were more optimistic than people who have direct contact with customers. As the institute notes, even within the same brand there were extreme opinions, which shows how difficult it is to predict the next year’s market. Although not a rule, representatives of premium brands are more optimistic than popular brands.
Prices will rise
As IBRM Samar summed up: the overwhelming majority (3/4 of voters) are pessimistic in the industry, but we can expect a further increase in the share of the premium segment, and hence the weighted average selling price, which will set new records.
According to IBRM Samar calculations, the initial forecast for 2023 of new passenger cars is 410,000 units (approximately -3.5 percent). A possible adjustment will occur after the first quarter of 2023. For vans up to 3.5 tonnes GVW, the forecast is 59,000 units (down about 4.8%).
Source: Wprost
