Poland’s GDP grew more than expected. Experts say the economy is overheating

The latest data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) shows that Poland’s GDP increased by 5.1% in real terms in 2022, and not by 4.9%, as previously estimated by the Office. In 2021, GDP growth was 6.9%, not 6.8% as previously reported.

Poland’s GDP is higher than expected

The Central Statistical Bureau also corrected the data of individual quarters of the previous year, increasing them by 0.2-0.3 percentage points. It turns out that in the first quarter of last year, GDP increased by 8.8 percent. year on year, in the second by 6.1 percent, in the third by 3.9 percent, and in the last quarter of 2022 by 2.3 percent.

According to Rzeczpospolita, investment was the source of the faster growth in activity in the Polish economy last year. The Central Statistical Office currently estimates that gross fixed capital formation increased by 5% last year instead of 4.5%, as the data show. However, consumer spending also grew stronger - by 3.3% instead of 3%.

The newspaper notes that, contrary to what appears to be the revision of GDP data may have some impact on the results of the Polish economy in the future. First, it changes the starting point of the GDP trajectory this year. The larger increase in this figure last year also creates a higher baseline.

Polish economy overheated?

Citing the latest data from the Central Statistical Office, economists at Pekao Bank note that although there is no revolution, the revised data adds a stone to the garden of “overheating the Polish economy.” – The Central Statistical Office revised the quarterly national accounts for 2021-2022. According to new data, GDP increased by 6.9% in 2021 and by 5.1% in 2022 - previously estimates of growth were 6.8 and 4.9%. This is not a revolution, but adds another pebble to the garden called. “overheating of the Polish economy” - Bank economists wrote on Twitter.