A return to low inflation levels is not expected in the coming months. According to a MPC member, there are no signs of this.
The National Bank of Poland has set an inflation target of 2.5 percent. with a tolerance of 1 percentage point round trip. Consumer inflation stood at 16.1% in August, far from the NBP’s target, according to the Central Statistical Bureau. When can we expect the prices of goods and services to return to the target level?
Low inflation? “Nothing to Show”
Joanna Tyrovich, a member of the Monetary Policy Council, was asked about this on Tok FM radio. - When will inflation return to the target? To date, no analysis indicates that this will occur before 2024, with a very tailwind - said Joanna Tirovic, a newly appointed member of the Monetary Policy Board.
- When today inflation is 16 percent, and - I repeat - 20 percent, analysts will not be surprised. in a relatively short period, this is, firstly, a surprise for everyone, but also a fundamental uncertainty - she added.
The July NBP forecast indicated that consumer inflation would remain at double-digit levels this year and next, and the upper limit of the range of deviation from the target would be reached no earlier than Q4 2024 (the inflation shield would remain in effect until the end of October this year). According to the central trajectory of the forecast, CPI inflation will be 14.2%. in 2022 12.3 percent in 2023 and 4.1 percent. in 2024
Anti-inflation shields will decide
During a September press conference, NBP President Adam Glapinski said he believes inflation could be in single digits next year and drop to 5-6%. on an annual basis, if the government’s anti-inflationary shield is maintained and a “not-so-dreadful” increase in regulated prices is implemented.
Source: Wprost
